Solitaire Win Rates [WAS: Tula Stats]

["James K Droscha" <jdroscha@...>]

--- In piecepack@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Schoessow" 
<mikeschoessow@c...> wrote:
> An interesting question for solitaire players is, what win ratio do 
> you prefer? I have the impression that many players prefer games in 
> which they can win roughly fifty percent of the time.

For many years (though perhaps no longer) the most popular solitaire 
game was Klondike (often just called Solitaire).  Odds of winning the 
game have apparently eluded mathematicians.  The three statistics I 
have seen are:
1) an estimation by a writer at 1/30 (3-1/3%)
2) trials run by a computer "taught" to play at 2/25 (8%)
3) trials run by a human (using same shuffles as the computer in #2) 
at 3/20 (15%)

> Personally, I 
> like games in which wins are rare, but in which considerable 
> progress is common.

For me, it depends on the type of activity (game, puzzle, or 
patience) and how long it takes to play.  One of my favorite patience 
games is 2-suit Spider Solitaire, wherein my win rate is 30%.  The 
longer a game takes, the higher the win rate I want.

Cheers,
James