Re: [piecepack] Solitaire Win Rates [WAS: Tula Stats]

["Mike Schoessow" <mikeschoessow@...>]

  >For many years (though perhaps no longer) the most popular solitaire 
  >game was Klondike (often just called Solitaire).  Odds of winning the 
  >game have apparently eluded mathematicians.  The three statistics I 
  >have seen are:
  >1) an estimation by a writer at 1/30 (3-1/3%)
  >2) trials run by a computer "taught" to play at 2/25 (8%)
  >3) trials run by a human (using same shuffles as the computer in #2) 
  >at 3/20 (15%)
  I understand your point about the popularity of Klondike (although, how many people even knew of other solitaires before cell phones and palm pilots, etc. started coming with them?) with its low win percentage when played according to the standard rules, but it's also true that quite a few people play using house rules to improve the odds. One of the most common is to allow the discard pile to be gone through a second or even third time. My comment concerning people's odds preferences was based upon past posts on game sites on this subject as well as upon conversations with friends. I believe that most people like to win more often than once every ten or fifteen games. I like the idea, brought up in other posts, of breaking the solitaire game category down into patience games versus solitaires that are not patience games. In one case it would seem that the games are designed to require deep thought, whereas in the other, they are intended as more light-hearted fare. The solitaire versus puzzle question is problematic. An argument can be made that all solitaires are in fact puzzles to be solved. 

  My own preference, outlined in my other post, is for a game with poor odds for winning, but I do like games in which there is always (or at least usually is) scope for considerable progress. This allows me to enjoy the game every time I play it, and to try bettering my previous high score. Once I win a solitaire, some of its luster is gone for me (not much necessarily, but some).

  It will be interesting to see what the spread of winning odds are among the games in the Solitary Confinement competition!

  Right about now, I would be interested in hearing Phillip's preferences for winning odds in solitaires, if he would care to state them :-)

  -Mike